Volume 5 - Volume 5
STUDY OF PREDICTION AND FORECAST OF AVERAGE DAILY TEMPERATURE OF THE CITY OF CARIACICA, ESPIRITO SANTO, BRAZIL, USING THE METHOD OF TIME SERIES
Abstract
The study of time series consists in extracting relevant periodicities in the observations, describe your behavior and make prediction. In this context, this work has the aimed to model, as well as to realize study of prediction and forecasting of the daily average temperature time series from Cariacica municipality/ES. The statistic analyze was realized in R 2.15.1 software (free software) considering 365 data monitored from January 1th to December 31th, 2012. The choice of the most appropriate model is based on the Akaike information criteria (AIC). The models tested for modeling and for forecasting showed accurate results. Among the adjusted models, the most appropriate was ARIMA (1,1,2) to prediction and forecasting daily average temperature prediction in Cariacica/ES.
Paper Details
PaperID: p 1881-1895
Author's Name: Wanderson de Paula Pinto, Gemael Barbosa Lima and Juliano Brás Zanetti
Volume: Volume 5
Issues: Volume 5
Keywords: Time series; ARIMA; daily mean air temperature.
Year: 2015
Month: March
Pages: 1881-1895