Volume 5 - Volume 5
DEMAND FORECASTING PROCESS OF INNOVATION USING THE METHOD ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS
Abstract
The innovation process by using the Analytic Hierarchy Process, is based on Newtonian and Cartesian method of thought which seeks to address the complexity of a problem with the breakdown problem and the division factors, which have shown potential to reduce the demand forecast error. In view of this, the study aims to structure a modeling in the context of demand projections, integrating multicriteria techniques for demand forecasting adjustments from qualitative elements. The proposed model was applied in Energy Research Company, which is responsible for carrying out studies to define the energy matrix and planning the expansion of the electricity sector. The results it was possible to demonstrate the operability and applicability of the model, its flexibility and ability to handle tangible and intangible factors contributing to the satisfactory results and that allow reducing the uncertainties in forecasting, and design of future scenarios most likely to occurrence.
Paper Details
PaperID: p 2526-2539
Author's Name: Dey Salvador Sánchez Rodríguez, Helder Gomes Costa, Augusto da Cunha Reis, Eliana Andrea Severo and Julio Cesar Ferro de Guimarães
Volume: Volume 5
Issues: Volume 5
Keywords: Process innovation; demand forecasting; multi-criteria analysis; AHP.
Year: 2015
Month: December
Pages: 2526-2539