Volume 1 - No 2
ANALYSIS OF THE CULTURE OF SOYBEAN PRODUCTION IN BRAZIL THROUGH THE ARIMA MODELS
Abstract
In this study, we show the application of the ARIMA methodology in the series representative
of the production of Culture of Sugar Cane in Brazil in the period 1931 to 2009. The sugar
cane in addition to being an abundant source of food utilization and diversified general, the
grain has a high protein (up to 50% protein), which makes it one of the cultures that received
more investments historically been the target of numerous research to improve quality and
productivity (DROS, 2004, MARION, 2004). Was performed in a first moment, a graphical
analysis of the data, observing the behavior of the original data and the autocorrelation
function and partial autocorrelation function. Obtaining the most appropriate model was
based on analyzing graphs and statistical tests of the methodology by which it was determined
that the best model for the series production of Culture Soyben production in Brazil was the
ARIMA (2,2,0 ) which had a MAPE equal to 7.25%, obtained from the validation criteria.
Paper Details
PaperID: p 49-56
Author's Name: STEPHANIE RUSSO FABRIS, JONAS PEDRO FABRIS, ANGELA ISABEL DOS SANTOS DULLIUS
Volume: Volume 1
Issues: No 2
Keywords: Soybean; ARIMA Models; Forecasting
Year: 2011
Month: December
Pages: 49-56